Abu Dhabi: Washington summons Moscow and Kyiv to talk 'peace'

The facts first. According to Le Monde, Steve Witkoff, the US envoy, announces negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, on Tuesday 10 and Wednesday 11 November in Abu Dhabi, under Washington's mediation. They will cover, he says, "post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian efforts and the next steps towards peace". Meanwhile, according to Le Monde, Russian bombardments in the Zaporizhzhia oblast have killed at least 26 people. Civilians count their dead; the diplomats prepare their agenda.

What we do not yet know: who will sit at the table, what each side's demands are, what these "security arrangements" will contain. The dispatch says nothing about it. Everything that follows is our reading, not an established fact.

Let us ask the question early: cui bono? Look at the cast. An American mediator, a venue chosen in the Gulf, two belligerents. Ukraine, which is being talked about, is invited to discuss its own future under the eye of a patron that finances and arms it. Russia, for its part, negotiates from strength, wanting its sphere of influence recognised. Washington presents itself as referee when it is a party to the conflict. The word "mediation" is doing a lot of work here.

The Leninist framework is not exotic. In its monopoly phase, capitalism pushes the great powers to divide the world among themselves: markets, raw materials, outlets for capital. Sanctions, arms contracts, military alliances and energy routes are the political envelope of this competition (according to the Gazette's summary note on imperialism). Applied to Abu Dhabi, the question becomes concrete. Who will win the reconstruction? Who will sell the weapons of "post-war security"? Who will draw the line between two zones of influence? No communiqué says so, but these are the real items on the agenda.

Lenin already mocked those who cover the predatory interests of "their" bourgeoisie with phrases about the "defence of the fatherland" (our translation, The State and Revolution). Today we say "security architecture" and "next steps towards peace". The vocabulary has gained in softness what it has lost in candour.

Let no one read here a plea against the end of the shooting. Every day with fewer bombardments is a day of living people gained, and Zaporizhzhia cruelly reminds us of it. But a ceasefire is not a just peace. A settlement dictated by the great powers first settles their own scores. Ukrainian, Russian workers, mobilised or exiled, have no seat in Abu Dhabi. Yet they will pay the bill: debt, reconstruction, austerity.

So we will wait for the content before applauding. And we will watch who, once the peace is signed, cashes the contracts.