Oil: Brent slides on hopes of peace in Iran, but the war remains a market

According to the Guardian, the Brent barrel lost more than 6.5% on Monday, falling as low as $105.55, its lowest level since 16 October. Airline shares climbed and the borrowing costs of states fell. The reason given: fresh hopes of a breakthrough to end the war in Iran.

What we do not yet know: what this breakthrough consists of, who is negotiating, and on what terms. The dispatch does not say. A hope is not an agreement. Markets, for their part, have already voted.

Here is our reading, and it fits in one sentence. A rumour of peace is enough to move billions in a single session. This shows how welded together war and oil are. The barrel does not react to corpses or to destroyed cities; it reacts to the likelihood that the flows will resume.

Cui bono? Look at the day's winners: the airlines, relieved, and the indebted states, whose rates are falling. Look also at those who do not appear in the dispatch: the producers and oil groups, who have been cashing in for weeks on a barrel above $100. At $105, we are not talking about a collapse. We are talking about a war price, slightly marked down.

Lenin's framework helps here. In the monopoly phase, he explained, financial capital seeks outlets, raw materials and spheres of influence, and the great powers fight over them. Sanctions, sea lanes, arms contracts and alliances are the political wrapping of this competition (this is the reading of the Gazette's concept notes, our translation). The Gulf is not a backdrop: it is a deposit, a transport corridor and a lever of pressure on every importer. When energy becomes a state weapon, each camp shoots at the other's bill.

And who pays that bill? Not the chancelleries. The price of crude passes through to fuel, heating, transport, and then to the weekly shopping basket. Workers pay for the war at the pump before even learning its aims. As for states that borrow more expensively when the barrel soars, they will present the bill in the form of austerity or military budgets. The rhetoric of "defence" comes afterwards, as always, to cover very concrete interests.

We will therefore be sold de-escalation as a victory for "dialogue". Be wary. A negotiated peace between powers and blocs of interest first settles the division of flows, routes and contracts. Peoples rarely have a seat at the table.

To be continued: the real content of this breakthrough, if it exists, and the duration of this retreat. A two-week dip is not a trend. For now, the stock market is breathing out. The rest of the world is waiting to see who cashes in the bill.