Russian Refineries: Kyiv Strikes, Washington Grumbles, Oil Companies Count

The facts first, as reported by the Guardian. Ukraine has resumed its attacks on Russian oil refineries, despite pressure from Donald Trump, a few days before the US midterm elections. According to Russian state media, long-range Ukrainian drones set fire overnight to the Kstovo refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region, shortly after a major strike on another large refinery in the Samara region, owned by the state-controlled giant Rosneft. The Kremlin claims Kyiv is "simply ignoring" American wishes. A ceasefire in the occupied city of Oleshky is due to expire Sunday evening. The rest of the file is thin: we do not know the extent of the damage or any possible death toll. What follows is our reading, not an established fact.

Cui bono? Let's ask early. A Russian refinery on fire means less fuel for the army and less revenue for the Russian state. It also mechanically puts pressure on oil markets. Now, a US president approaching an election does not like petrol prices rising. That is doubtless the real subject of the "pressure": Washington's electoral calendar, not peace.

The detail that matters is right there. A state at war, dependent on weapons, intelligence and money from a protector, is asked to calibrate its strikes to that protector's electoral needs. This is called subordination. The conflict is fought in Kyiv and Moscow, but its rules are partly decided in Washington. Every great power defends its sphere of influence, its markets, its resources. Sanctions, arms deliveries and alliances are, as the Leninist tradition put it, the political wrapping of economic rivalries. The concepts of finance capital and the division of the world between blocs are not an old backdrop: they illuminate who decides how intense the fire will be.

On the Russian side, the same logic in reverse. Rosneft is an instrument of the state, and the Russian state, like any state, first defends the interests of the class that grows rich from oil rent. To say Kyiv "defies" Trump is, moreover, a little hasty. Kyiv is negotiating its survival, and knows that Russian oil rent finances the shells. The Kremlin, for its part, frets over contempt for "American wishes": touching solicitude, coming from a belligerent that is itself bombing.

Who pays? The refinery workers, the residents of the affected areas, the soldiers on both sides, and the people of Oleshky, caught in a local ceasefire that is about to lapse. Blood costs shareholders nothing. The arms manufacturers, for their part, are already rubbing their hands: every drone fired calls for a replacement drone.

No "international community" is arbitrating here, no rules-based order. A war between states, backed by powers that count their barrels and their votes. Ukrainian and Russian workers are asked to die for borders. They have nothing to gain from Washington's arbitration or Moscow's.